Kevin Rudd faces election struggle in key states

A FALL in Labor support in NSW and electoral volatility in Queensland during the first three months of Tony Abbott's Liberal leadership have ensured the home states of the Opposition Leader and Kevin Rudd will be vital battlegrounds in the coming election.

Since his election as leader in December, Mr Abbott has picked up support in every mainland state and every age group at a cost to Labor, leaving the Rudd government with a clear primary vote lead only in South Australia and Victoria, The Australian reported.

Three months ago, under the leadership of Malcolm Turnbull, the Coalition trailed well behind Labor in every mainland state, except Western Australia, where the two sides were level.

Mr Abbott's support has been significantly boosted among voters aged over 50, those in regional areas and in SA and WA. Labor support has dropped in Queensland, NSW and Victoria and among older voters.

Younger voters have largely held firm for Labor, but despite claims Mr Abbott "has a problem with women", female voters were more satisfied with him than his predecessor.

Satisfaction with Mr Abbott reached 43 per cent in the January quarter, compared with 32 per cent for Mr Turnbull last November.

Labor strategists believe the vote in Queensland is "fractured" and seats will be won and lost against national trends while, in NSW, anti-ALP sentiment is being fuelled by the unpopular and incompetent state government.

Liberal strategists believe Mr Abbott, who has to win seven or eight seats to form government, has recaptured the Liberal voting base, particularly among older voters and people living in regional areas.

The Liberals are also buoyed by huge improvements for Mr Abbott in WA, where the ALP had hoped to lift its performance after a poor 2007 result, and in SA.

Last week, Julia Gillard spent almost a week in WA reassuring mining companies the Rudd government would be tough on illegal strikes and promoting spending on the $16.2 billion school building program.

According to an analysis of Newspoll surveys taken between January and March this year, the first full three months of Mr Abbott's leadership, Labor's total primary vote fell five points to 40 per cent and the Coalition's rose four points to 40 per cent, the first time the Government and the opposition have been level since the 2007 election.

Based on surveys of more than 6000 voters since January, the analysis includes the latest Newspoll survey, published in The Australian last week, in which the Coalition and Mr Abbott both lost ground.

Mr Abbott has reclaimed the Coalition's traditional lead among voters over 50 with a five-point rise on primary vote to 47 per cent compared with a five-point drop for Labor to 37 per cent. That gives the Coalition the biggest lead in any state or demographic group.

Young voters gave more support to Mr Abbott personally than Mr Turnbull, up 11 points from 32 to 43 per cent, but Labor held its strong primary vote lead among the young of 13 points.

Source:heraldsun.com.au/